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2016-2017 ICT Private Mentorship

This is my 2016-2017 ICT Private Mentorship notes

How to learn ICT

How to learn ICTopen in new window

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide Series

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide Seriesopen in new window

We should find a directional bias on HTF and trade in that direction

We should trade in a specific time of day when price can move significantly. To do so correctly, we should analyze the price and see when big price moves are happened in the past. FOr example, in a bearish market, we can make all highs after which price sharply dropped lower and check if this time of day its Killzone (KZ), or maybe Silverbullet (SB)

In bearish market (if the daily chart is poised to move lower) we have a 70% of chance high of the week forming by the London Open on Tuesday. Sometimes, Wednesday can take a high of Tuesday London Open high during for example, some wild news and that is can be non-profitable trade if we haven't taken partials... Sometimes the high of the week can be formed on Monday...

If it's a bullish week, we can expect parice will trade lower on Monday or Tuesday, so we can try to find an entry into a trade on a specific levels

We should not get into a trade if we have no key resistance/support on HFT (1D, 4h, 1h)

When the market is doing high or low on a daily chart, these Hs and Ls are significant

Major reaction levels occur on yearly Hs and Ls; Quarterly Hs and Ls (every three months, for example, in a block of Jan–Mar, Apr–Jun, Jul–Sep and Oct-Dec, will be significant Hs and Ls); Monthly Hs and Ls; Weekly Hs and Ls; Intra-week Hs and Ls (for example, if on Wed we have highes hi or lowest low – that one may be a influential); standard Daily Hs and Ls

Remember to focus on a Swing Hs and Ls, these Hs and Ls are very-very strong. We should annotate all three candles of that swing H or L. For example, whenever we have a swing high formed on a daily chart, we should mark H&L of all three candles of that swing H.

We do not look for a trade in LTF, unless it is trading at the HTF support/resistence levels. That means that trade should be formulated around HTF level that we already marked from a daily and/or from 4h TF

When there are a lot of uncertainties, or some global events are happening: war, terrorist attack, etc... we should:

  • reduce our leverage
  • slow down our expectations

When we start new week, we can try to use Fri range

When we see three indians pattern, which is going into the old high, it might be significant. We should see if there will be a brake lower, if it is, then we may go short with a high probability setup right after reversal

10-year T-Notes, Yields

When the 10-year T-Note futures contract is rallying, the Bond (10-year Bond Yield for that 10-year T-Note) would be declining. And vise versa: when the 10-year T-Note futures contract is dropping, that means that 10-year Bond Yield will be going higher

If we want to be a buyer of the currency (for example, EUR/USD), we should do that when the 10-year Bond Yield is growing (i.e.: 10-year T-Note is dropping). That means, as 10-year Bond Yield is going higher, the countries will chase that, because currencies are moving in the same direction with 10-year Bond Yield. That means, while 10-year T-Note is trading lower on HTF, should be buyer of currencies on that HTF

When we want to risk Max of our allowed leverage (depends on us what these numbers are):

  • For Long trades, we can risk more than for Short trades if the 10-year Bond Yield is rallying higher
  • For Short trades, we can risk more than for Long trades if the 10-year Bond Yield is dropping lower
  • It doesn't means that we cannot see a counter-moves to what we expect, no, we will see how currencies are dropping lower even if 10-year Bond Yield is moving higher ...and we can trade short on such retracements based on HTF analysis... but we will use less leverage for shorts, while if we see a bullish market structure, we can trade with our maximum allowed leverage, because Long trades will be agreed with our 10-year Bond Yield HTF analysis

Power of three

When there is a small inside day (not Sunday, this one should be ignored completely), then we can expect that next day or two real big move will happen. We want to trade inside a consolidations when the market is boring... And when a big and explosive move happens, we hopefully will be in position, and the market hopefully will be moving in our favor, and its duration can be 1 day or 2 days or even three days

On large-range days, the open tends to be at the opposite extreme of the daily range opposed to the close. Meaning if it's a big bullish-range day, then open of that day will be lower than close and vise versa: if it's a big bearish-range day, then open will be near to the high, while close will be near to the low

Also on a such big-range days, price usually not staying very long time, it will probably take some stops or quickly reprice to some key level and then quickly move in its real direction. It means, that wo we should follow when to get into a trade and our goal is to catch the whole daily move.

TODO: Backtest this: We should hunt to catch a power of three daily range moves in between midnight and 2pm. Usually we can see some king of manipulation and then move towards our targets and objectives. If this is going to be a big bullish day, then after midnight in London Open we can see some kind of manipulation with a fake move below the midnight opening price. Then NY Open can be a continuation up to NY Close. From NY Lunch price most likely will not be moving until Asia...

Killzones (EST)

  • Europe (Hunt Directional Bias):
    • 02:00am-11:00am Frankfurt
    • 03:00am-12:00pm London
      • London Open: 01:00am-05:00am
  • America:
    • 08:00am-17:00pm NY
      • NY Open: 07:00am-10:00am
    • 09:00am-18:00pm Chicago
  • Asia (accumulation):
    • 19:00pm-04:00am Tokyo
    • 20:00pm-05:00am Hong Kong
  • Pacific (accumulation):
    • 17:00pm-02:00am Sydney
    • 17:00pm-01:00am Wellington

Frankfurt

The hunt starts at 02:00am, because the close outcry is at 14:00pm. Hunt the move that sets the H or the L of the day. Trade Directional bias

London

Frankfurt hunt trade will be closing into London Close or before 14:00pm no matter if we were right on a directional bias. If we are not in the position before 05:00am, we close our charts and go to sleep until NY Open, somewhere before 07:00am (for example, at 06:30am we can check charts what is going on...) Many times the move starts about 07:00am. Or in between 07:00am and 07:30am, because open outcry is starts at 07:20

Sessions Hs and Ls

TODO: Backtest this: With the help of marking London H and L, later, we can in NY Open session use OTE for continuation

Market Make Business Models

Market Make Buy Models

We can participate on a move lower right after the consolidation phase, when price trade lower and then come back to low of the initial consolidation or even higher (OTE)

We should not trade and catch the low until we get confirmation that it was a reversal. Confirmation can come in form of Market Struncture ShiftL MSS or Brake of Market Structure after a reversal pattern has been formed around some support level or after liquidity is taken. Many times the price will back and test reversal as support and give a buying opportunity on accumulation phase

We also can get into the trade in optional re-accumulation phase (which may not occur) if we are still in discount

Market Make Sell Models

Same thing as for Market Maker Buy Model, but in reverse:

We always start from consolidation. When move out from consolidation, the H of that consolidation usually can be retested (but its optional and doesn't always have to happen)

Then price will rally up to clearly defined liquidity (resistance) with reversal formation

Many times we will see how price leaving reversal and come back to re-test reversal low (optional)

Price will not stay long in reversal, usually it happens fast, so we should sell in re-accumulation phase(s)

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 2

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 2 TODO

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 3

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 3 TODO

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 4

ICT Forex Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide - Vol. 4open in new window

Tracking Institutional Price Action

As we know, when 10-year T-Note Yields (Bonds) are moving higher on HTF, Foreign Currency price will chase ("seek") Yields. So when the 10-Year T-Note Futures Market (Bonds) is going lower, that means that Yields will be moving higher and all Currencies will be chasing that as well. Meaning it will be Bullish for Currencies and Bearish for the US Dollar. And vise versa, if 10-Year T-Notes (or Bonds) are rallying on a Futures Market, then that is going to decline Yields, and it will be Bullish for the US Dollar and Bearish for Foreign Currencies

Next ICT showed how during ICT Killzones (KZs) we can use Optimal Trade Entry (OTE)

So, this is how we can formulate our idea for Directional Bias. It doesn't mean that we will always be buy if Yields are rallying... We will be waiting for Bullish setups more and use higher leverage for Bullish ideans than for Bearish

TODO: Backtest this: We should clearly see how the Market is moving during ICT KZs. So if we are Bullish, and we trade either London Open or NY Open, then we wait for retracement during these KZs and we are buying by using OTE

ICT showed that it's important to have annotated London Open and NY Open sessions highs and lows, and also highs and lows inside sessions, because they can be used later on retracements as an OTE entry

Pause in between London and NY can be treated as NY Lunch

Hidden OTE

When we see a prior big range move, next what we could expect us small range

When we see how RELs were taken with a big NWOG, we can use those REHs as a resistence level and expect that price might not be trading lower and closing fully that gap right-away... So as opportunity for entry OTC low can use those REHs

We should not pick a tops or lows, we should always wait for MSS

ICT highlighted how KZs are important

Before we get into a trade, we should exactly know:

  • When? KZs
  • Why? Directional Bias
  • How? OTE

When we see these KZs, we should learn to expect some moves and journal them

Directional Bias: Why Do Markets Move?

What are catalysts for markets moves?

ICT showed how Moving Average indicators 9 and 18 could be used for Directional Bias. It's just a simplified way to read Market Structure. Of course, we should read it from Price Actions, but in the beginning we can use HTF charts with Moving Averages

ICT tells what his tools to read institutional order flow is independent to the markets and doesn't require any indicators

What makes trades high-probability? It's simply a combination of multiple things:

  • It's in sync with HTF Market charts and current Market environment:
    • It's Risk-On or Risk-Off?
    • Is it moving in the same direction as HTF?
    • Is it moving in accordance with yields?
  • Displacements: Are we in agree with large player displacements?

ICT no-Brainer Directional Bias

Displacements and HTF charts sync

Candlestick patterns

TODO